As DavidNYC noted in his Orange-to-Blue endorsement post of Jim Himes yesterday, Chris Shays has a history of pretending to be a "moderate" while voting again and again for Bush's policies.

This morning, Shays joined many in both parties in Congress by standing with Bush again on the FISA "compromise".

In fact, Chris Shays has been busy doing his best impersonation of a Blue Dog all week, voting for the war supplemental without timelines that passed yesterday before voting for the for the disastrous FISA bill that passed today.

It's been a while since my last House diary, and I just know you've been sitting there wondering "when will Nathaniel publish his next House roundup diary? I can't live without my fix, and he's just so...incisive...and brilliant...and downright Lincolnesque." (h/t to Stephen Colbert for that.)

Well, pine no more! As always, seats are ranked by flippability, but since House races are so numerous (at 435), I eventually switch to alphabetical order after the first 18 races. I figured 18 was a convenient number...and I also got lazy after writing about Alaska At Large.

Read below the fold, if you dare...

We're off to the races in Connecticut, with one red-hot House race in the Fourth District, and two solid freshman Dems looking to consolidate their support in the Second and Fifth Districts. The GOP has nominated their slate of candidates, and are ready to start the official campaign.

CT-02: Democrat "Landslide Joe" Courtney won election last year in one of the narrowest races in the country. Courtney edged Republican Rob Simmons by just 83 votes, a margin which is actually not unusual for the district. Former Representative Sam Gejdenson won reelection in 1994 by just 21 votes, and lost his seat to Simmons in 2002 by under 2,000 votes.

Courtney is a solid Democrat on national issues, and an outspoken opponent of the Iraq War. The district leans strongly Democratic at the presidential level (Gore won it by 14 points, and Kerry by 10), but it has placed a heavy emphasis in recent years on electing Representatives with the ability to deliver for the district, most particularly with regard to the submarine manufacturing base in Groton. The sub base is the district's largest employer, and Gejdenson lost in 2000 amid rumors of the base closing.

With the prominence of the submarine base in mind, the GOP recruited the former base commander, Captain Sean Sullivan, as their candidate. While this sounded promising for the Republicans initially (as much as any candidate would in a D+7.6 district in a Democratic year), the highly touted Sullivan has proven to be a fundraising dud. He has just over $100K on hand (and that number isn't increasing very quickly, as he pulled in a grand total of $3,000 in three weeks in April).

Courtney, meanwhile, has over $1.2 million on hand to go with a fine record for his first term in Congress. Rob Simmons had some nice words for our man Joe:

Former Republican Rep. Rob Simmons, who in 2006 lost narrowly to Courtney, the one-time Vernon town attorney, belittled his former opponent.

"If John McCain becomes the next president, who do you think he'll turn to for advice in Congress?" he asked Republicans gathered in Willimantic. "A town attorney from Vernon or a decorated Navy captain with more than 20 years of distinguished service?"

Yeah, well...that ain't happening.

CT-04: For the third year in a row, CT-04 is shaping up to be one of the hottest races in the country. Republican incumbent Christopher Shays, who narrowly won reelection with 52% in both 2004 and 2006, is the last Republican Representative from New England left in Congress. After spirited challenges the last two cycles from Diane Farrell, Shays is now challenger by Democrat Jim Himes.

Himes, 41, is a former Goldman Sachs vice president and Rhodes Scholar. He has proven to be a terrific fundraiser, with over $1.1 million cash-on-hand as of last filing. By comparison, 20-year incumbent Shays has roughly $30,000 more in the bank than Himes. Himes is also an early addition to the DCCC's Red to Blue list.

Shays has a long-standing reputation as a moderate, and he's certainly proven to be a survivor in this Democratic-leaning Bridgeport-based district. The Fourth was Lieberman country in 2006, which may well have helped Shays win reelection that year. Still, Himes is a truly formidable candidate, and even after the close calls of the last two cycles, Shays may yet be in for the race of his life.

CT-05: By PVI, the Fifth is Connecticut's least Democratic district (D+3.7). Republican Nancy Johnson represented the area for 24 years until 2006, when she was defeated by Democrat Chris Murphy.

Murphy, 34, has had a remarkable record of political success, particularly for such a young guy. Fresh out of college at 22, he managed the campaign of Democrat Charlotte Koskoff, who ran against Johnson in 1996 and came within one point of unseating her. After graduating from law school, Murphy then defeated a 14-year incumbent to win a seat in the State House, then captured a Republican-held seat in the State Senate before defeating Johnson quite badly in 2006, winning by 12 points after  a series of nasty attacks by the Johnson campaign. Since his election, Murphy has proven to be a popular Congressman and an excellent fundraiser, currently sitting on a $1.5 million war chest.

The Republicans hope to take this seat back with State Senator David Cappiello, who has been forced to run away from his unpopular president in this Dem-leaning district. Needless to say, that hasn't gone over especially well with his based (though he and Bush appear to be getting on fine, as Bush held a fundraiser for Cappiello at Henry Kissinger's house a few weeks ago).

It appears that the line of attack will be to paint Murphy as a DC insider who is soft on terrorism-indeed, it appears that that is already what they're doing. As DemFromCT notes, however, it's unlikely to work:

This is a winning strategery for McCain and Republicans... why? It's not 2002 any more. The inept Republican fear campaign played badly for Nancy Johnson in 2006 and Rudy Giuliani in 2008. Why would it work better now?

Alas, it's going to take a Democratic win in November to purge the system of the idea that Republican fear and smear still work. Chalk that up to yet another reason to vote Democratic.

Hear, hear.

The Republicans are dreaming big about CT-05, but I don't think this is the year they're going to stop Chris Murphy's meteoric rise.

I live in CT, and I've been bombarded with those *#@% Defense of Democracies ads for both Chris Murphy and Joe Courtney. And, quite frankly, I've had enough of it.

I was actually planning to write a LTE about the hypocrisy of McCain, but I figure that, given the airtime this ad is getting--an average of once every half-hour, if not more--that it might be a good idea to send this one first.

I have the letter below the fold. Any advice you can give on improving this, I'd greatly appreciate it.

This is to be the first of 20 diaries looking at the House districts which look most likely to be in play in 2008.  The goal is to put up one a week, which will finish the series before the holidays.  These are largely districts that I mentioned in my overview diary here: http://www.dailykos.com/...  In addition, I decided to add 19 "50 State Strategy" districts.  These are districts which would not otherwise make my list but where the Democratic nominee in 2006 a) improved by at least 5 percentage points on 2004 performance and b) held the incumbent under 60%.  Finally, recent developments have added a couple of seats.  I will look at the seats regionally, and look at both GOP-held and Dem-held seats together.  Of the 20 groupings I came up with, there are two which contain only GOP seats to target.  The rest are a mix.  Each profiles between 5 and 9 races.

As with my challenger rundown, I am listing the races alphabetically and not by turnover chance. The reason is that some races are shaping up, with announced candidates, and others are still big question marks.

Any races without at least one announced challenger are ignored for now.

Let us begin. Turn to page Below the Fold in your hymnals...

Cross-posted from my blog, An Enduring Democratic Majority.

Last week, while our most senior Democratic leaders in the House and Senate were running away from their earlier committment to troop withdrawal, it was our Freshman class of 2006 that stood most steadfast against removing the timetables. Of the 140 "No" votes that day, 12 of themcame from Representatives who recently won their seats from incumbents of another party.

One man in particular I wanted to highlight was my Congressman, Joe Courtney:

I hope all is well with everyone at this time. As for me, I'm fresh out of my first year in college, and am beginning to settle back into politics for the summer. And that means keeping up to date on the latest happenings in politics around the country.

I'd like today to cover a number of House races that are seeing new candidates enter the fray, in both open seats and against incumbents of both parties. 2008 is important not only for the Presidency (although that clearly is numero uno in priority), but for Congress; the Democrats have a slender majority at best in the Senate and only a 16-seat margin in the House. Expanding our majorities in both houses is imperative if a Democratic President is going to get much accomplished in 2009 and beyond.

http://www.cqpolitics.com/...
In this CQ Politics article, the editors discuss how the Republicans think they can take back the two fairly Democratic CT-02 and CT-05.  Both of these districts supported John Kerry in 2004 by 12 and one point respectively while he was losing nationwide.  In my opinion, if George W. Bush could not carry these districts in one of the better recent Republican years, I don't see any other Republican doing it against incumbents.  

Good news:

Former Rep. Rob Simmons (R) has accepted a job as Connecticut Gov. Jodi Rell’s Business Advocate, making it highly unlikely that he will run for his old seat [...]

His decision indicates that Rep. Joe Courtney, D-Conn., who defeated Simmons in the closest race of the 2006 cycle, will have a smoother re-election ride than many anticipated.  This has traditionally been tough terrain for national Republicans; President Bush only won 44 percent of the vote here in 2004.

Yes, it's very early, but hey, we live in the age of perpetual campaigning, so let's jump on it.

I am ranking my list of House 2008 Defense (the top 25 at least): vulnerable freshmen, or vulnerable long-time incumbents. Since we only know for sure so far of one open seat (CO-02), I am not including open seats.

Read below the fold!

Talk about every vote counting.

A roller-coaster recount that uncovered vote-counting flaws in several Connecticut towns gave Democrat Joe Courtney a narrow victory over three-term Republican Rep. Rob Simmons on Tuesday.

Courtney won by 91 votes instead of the 167-vote margin counted on election night, according to results tabulated by 65 town clerks and reported to The Associated Press. Nearly 250,000 votes were cast.

Chris Shays in CT-04 is the last Republican congressman in all of New England.

He can switch parties if he wants to survive. Because otherwise, we're taking him out in 2008. And he won't have Joe Lieberman helping him with GOTV.

After a week of diary hiatus, I am back with a FTP that is following the REAL polls. CQ has done a nice job of following the ten races that remain undecided. If you want to hear it from their crack reporting staff, feel free to click here.

If not, follow me below the fold and read the latest on the ten races yet to be called. At present, the Democrats enjoy a 229-196 majority. See how it might change after the jump.

**UPDATE**: The AP reports that the recount in CT-02 is complete, and that Democrat Joe Courtney has won the race by less than a hundred votes. Simmons is apparently going to have a statement tomorrow. Given some rumblings from his camp about electoral issues, it might NOT be a concession.

The AP has it.  91 votes....

A roller-coaster recount that stretched nearly a week and uncovered significant vote-counting flaws in at least three communities came to an end Tuesday night, confirming Courtney's general election victory over Rep. Rob Simmons.

Recounts in each of the district's 65 towns gave Courtney the nod, although his election-night margin of 167 votes narrowed to 91, according to results tabulated by town clerks and reported to The Associated Press. Nearly 250,000 votes were cast.

.....

Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz planned a news conference Wednesday morning to announce the results.

Bit more below.

I hope Burner runs again in 2008:

U.S. Rep. Dave Reichert campaigned on his willingness to buck his Republican Party.

Monday, he eluded the GOP's nationwide losing streak by apparently beating back a fierce, expensive challenge from Democrat Darcy Burner.

"I am a little surprised it was as tough as it was, because of the inexperience of my opponent," Reichert said. "The national environment played a significantly higher role, and had more of an impact, than I expected it to play."

At least 20,000 ballots remain uncounted, but Reichert has steadily padded his lead since Election Day and held a 4,727-vote margin Monday. The Associated Press, based on voting trends, declared victory for Reichert late Monday.

Burner called Reichert on Monday night to congratulate him and will hold a news conference today in Bellevue, her campaign said.

Burner ran an incredible campaign for a first-timer. If she comes back for the rematch, she'll be that much wiser, more battle-tested, with a more mature network of donors, grassroots activists, and netroots supporters.

Meanwhile, in Ohio, Democratic challenger Mary Jo Kilroy battles on:

Just days after the balloting that left her 3,600 votes away from a seat in Congress, Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy has reactivated her campaign to sniff out a few thousand voters who could hold the key to the election.

Kilroy's campaign called about 70,000 voters last weekend and aired television and radio ads asking people who cast provisional ballots to contact the campaign and county boards of elections to make sure their votes in the 15 th Congressional District are counted.

Kilroy came up 3,536 votes short of toppling Republican Rep. Deborah Pryce of Upper Arlington, but she did not concede the election last week. Kilroy and her supporters think she could win after provisional and absentee votes are counted next week.

Attorneys for groups that had opposed new voter-ID requirements were negotiating with state officials last night on how provisional ballots would be counted. The two sides were to resume talks today in the chambers of U.S. District Judge Algenon L. Marbley.

If the voter was wrongly required to cast a provisional ballot -- for instance, he or she had an old address on an otherwise valid driver's license -- the opponents want that vote counted as a regular ballot. That way, the voters would not have to produce additional documentation to make their votes count.

An attorney for Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell said the two sides had agreed on about "94 percent" of the points.

Slightly more than 10,000 people in the 15 th Congressional District cast provisional ballots, which are required when voters cannot produce identification establishing their residency.

Kilroy's campaign thinks that it will capture the majority of those votes because transient voters tend to favor Democrats -- hence the fresh blast of campaign ads nearly a week after the election.

And in CT-02, the two candidates must have ulcers by now.

The roller coaster recount in the 2nd Congressional District took a sharp turn Monday afternoon when officials in one small eastern Connecticut town discovered an error that had given Democrat Joe Courtney 100 extra votes.

By nightfall, though, Courtney had gained back 40 of those votes due to the discovery of another error in another small town that had inflated the vote totals of his opponent, Republican incumbent Rob Simmons.

Later the same evening, a computation error in yet a third town gave Republicans an additional 31 votes, according to the state party chairman.

The stomach-churning ride is expected to screech to a halt late tonight, when every community in the sprawling, 65-town district will have completed its mandated recount. By law, the municipalities have until midnight Wednesday to report their revised tallies to the secretary of the state's office, but 56 had completed the process by Monday night and the final nine will do so today.

Courtney's lead is currently a razor-thin 82 votes.

Prior to the recount in CT-02, Democrat Joe Courtney led by fewer than 200 votes over incumbent Republican Rob Simmons.  Over the past few days, towns have been rechecking their vote totals - usually by just opening up the machine and making sure the number reads the same as the one reported.  Recounts must be completed by Wednesday night.

I just heard on the radio that Joe Courtney, Connecticut Congressional District 2, lead narrowed by 100 votes from a math error in the town of Lebanon.

Democrat Joe Courtney's lead in the 2nd Congressional District dropped to 66 votes Monday after officials in Lebanon discovered a math error that had given him 100 extra votes over Republican U.S. Rep. Rob Simmons, an election official said.

"It was human error," said Lebanon election moderator John Bendoraitis. "It was strictly misreading one number on one machine."

Joe Courtney's lead over Rob Simmons dropped to 66 votes after a recount in Lebanon found a math error that incorrectly added 100 votes to Courtney's count.  Courtney had lost a single vote so far.  The recount will be over half finished today.  Let's hope that's the only unpleasant surprise out there...

http://www.courant.com/...